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Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T17:14Z (-7.25h, +7.25h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 5.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 42.0

initial CME speed: 803.0(+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-07-27T10:34Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 15.65 hour(s)
Difference: 6.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-07-29T07:41Z

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